The dollar regained colours, before the US Federal Reserve meeting today. Yesterday, it increased up to 1,3131 for 1 euro and remaining below 1.32 dollar much of the day, before falling to 1,3260 dollar for 1 euro in the evening. Market however discounted maintenance by the Fed of its interest rates unchanged, at 5.25, tonight, for the fourth time in a row.
They are more likely to build on a status quo extended, anticipating more American rate cut before mid-2007, after the announcement, Friday, figures for better jobs than expected in November in the United States. The dollar bounced back against the euro Friday and yesterday, after nearly two weeks of decline.
Operators had yet, in the course of the past few weeks, songé in addition to a decline in the rate of the Fed in early 2007, due to the multiplication of alarming statistics on the US economy. Figures who have made re-emerge spectrum of a hard landing of the US economy, forcing the Fed to lower rates, rapidly and weighed on the dollar.
December 1, after the announcement of an index of Directors of purchase highlighting a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the first time since April 2003, the majority of operators betting on a monetary easing in the first quarter of 2007, if according to the futures markets. This is no longer the case today. The majority of them put on a decline in the rate by the end of the first half of 2007 from Fed Funds futures contracts. The most reassuring figures on the US economy have been published, last week, an index of Directors of purchase net increase in services, the figures for employment, Friday.
Reluctance of markets
"The scenario of the EDF of a landing soft US economy resumed the top for the moment." The slowdown in the housing market does not appear to have reached other areas, such as services. "However, the markets will continue to hesitate between the scenario of a hard landing with a soft, landing in the United States, according to the figures," said Nordine Naam, strategist at Ixis CIB. Where extreme volatility. The Federal Reserve ceased so far to say that the economy would slow gently, and inflationary pressures influence in the wake. A position which led her to maintain unchanged rates since August 8.
On the front of the euro, the controversy continued in France on the high level of the European currency. While the European Central Bank has identified its main interest rate on December 7, the Prime Minister, Dominique de Villepin, called yesterday to "clarify the roles" on the action of the European Bank. According to him, "the Central Bank has a responsibility first for fight against rising prices and inflation", but it is "clarify responsibilities in the field of foreign exchange policy", he said on France Inter.
Finally, in light decline against the dollar, the euro, however, reached yesterday a new historical record against the yen, 154.84 yen for 1 euro, after the statements of a head of the Central Bank of the Japan in the journal "Jiji". This official, whose identity was not disclosed, said that the Bank of Japan would not be not interest rates at its meeting next week. Which was a decline in the yen.
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