From the quasiprimaires to the FNWhat are primary

It is recorded, the Socialist candidate in the next presidential will be appointed in the fall of 2011 at the end of "open" to all primary supporters left. This is what decided Tuesday evening to the PS national Office. But it is currently one of the few certainties about the future race for the Elysee. Candidates, mode of appointment, calendar: less than two years of maturity, political headquarters questioned still the best way forward.

Sarkozy fine-tunes its agenda

There is no doubt of the will of the head of State to seek a second term, but the timing to be is always strategic for an outgoing President. This will be "late summer" or "beginning in the fall of 2011", said Nicolas Sarkozy April 12 on CBS. Rather "end of 2011", he suggested the members received in May. What would be still early for a past President (Chirac was declared in February 2002, Mitterrand on March 22, 1988). Unlike the Socialist candidate, the head of State to remain master of its schedule to the end and his party, the UMP, adapt. But by then his priority goes to the reorganization of its teams (after the pension reform), the choice of positioning (he envisions "protective President") and to the reduction of competition on the right. But Dominique de Villepin which creates, on 19 June, his political movement, it is more than ever a threat. Without being officially candidate, former Prime Minister applies to meet the conditions, including at the meeting of the French. "We will see, on the evolution of the next few months, how things are", he said Tuesday. One of his relatives, Member of UMP Jacques Le Guen, hope that he will unveil not too soon "not to be already the target of the Kalashnikov rifles and shell".

Centre handicap race

This electorate is strategic; the niche is so coveted by potential candidates... all with a handicap of starting. Prior to position themselves for a third battle presidential - likely in the fall of 2011-, François Bayrou must restore its credibility and that of the Modem, proven by the successive electoral failures. Eager to take advantage of the weakness of his former boss, the President of the new Centre, Hervé Morin, prepares by meetings "of field", as yesterday evening at Boulogne with business leaders. Despite its deficit of notoriety, the Minister of defence has no intention to declare before "the fall of 2011", probably at an extraordinary Congress of his training. "The pre-electoral I the am already being at the Government", says, not pressed to leave his Ministry. More known that this last, the Minister of ecology, Jean-Louis Borloo, does not have to be present in 2012 despite his membership in the UMP. But his colleagues believe that pressure for Matignon.

From the quasi-primaires to the FN

What are primary. Marine Le Pen and Bruno Gollnisch are campaigning to succeed Jean-Marie Le Pen at the head of the party in January 2011 and therefore to engage in the presidential race. In theory, "nothing precludes another personality as the President of the FN to be presidential candidate", notes Jean-François Jalkh, General Secretary of the party. But, in reality, the new leader of the party will be in a position of strength. Especially if it is - as is likely - Marine Le Pen, already well placed in the polls ("Les Echos" of yesterday). Since 1972, the leader of the party has always led the battle. It is true that it was a "natural and exclusive" candidate, its founder Jean-Marie Le Pen.

A wheelchair for three to PS

If the primary have been fixed in the fall of 2011, after Senate elections held in September, the date of the receipt of applications is, not arrested. It could be that in January 2011, according to some tenors of the PS. What would be not neutral to Dominique Strauss-Kahn. The duration of the campaign has not been, nor decided. And some potential candidates, such as François Hollande and Manuel Valls, openly expressed concern that the process is biased. The stairway of Martine Aubry, Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Laurent Fabius are an agreement between these three tenors to not to run against the other in these primaries. Ségolène Royal, a little behind in the polls, announced last weekend, and subscribe to the non-aggression pact ("Les Echos" from May 31). To avoid possible fraud, Ségolène Royal was proposed of "modernising the transparency of the vote in the primary by communicating real time results on the Internet, desk, which allows voters to follow the results".

The dilemma of the Communists

Despite relative success at the recent European and regional (around), the left Front is in trouble, because of the divergent interests of its two main components. The leader of the left party, the Socialist former Jean-Luc Mélenchon, does not hide his presidential ambitions, while the Communist Party, he wondered. Should go to the 2012 battle under the banner of the left Front with candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon or present its own candidate, at the risk of less than 2, as Marie - George Buffet in 2007 In 15 days, it is a man of apparatus, Pierre Laurent, almost unknown to the general public, who will succeed him as head of the PCF. As imagine internal primary to the left Front, Jean-Luc Mélenchon will never accept to engage in a competition that he has no chance of winning, his party having very few activists.

Ecologists: go or not

While the National Secretary of the Greens, Cécile Duflot, ponders his possible candidacy, the name of Eva Joly, the former elected in June 2009 MP European anti-corruption magistrate was advanced by the entourage of Daniel Cohn-Bendit. The Contracting Party does not close the door to that possibility. But before deciding, ecologists must first establish a new party. It is up to this new structure outlines now poorly defined to decide whether or not that environmentalists have a presidential candidate. If "Dany" friends are not fundamentally convinced, the Greens are a contrary opinion. "It would be incomprehensible to not present candidate, believes Jean - Vincent placed, number two.". We will organise a smart primary summer 2011, provides. The only criteria will be the power and popularity.