France may be out as early as last spring recession, the recovery remains fragile, as evidenced by the surge of unemployment in October. It is in this context that the President of the Republic goes today near Toulon (Var) on the theme of "economic recovery". Also, a few days after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, he called for "refounding the capitalism". Nicolas Sarkozy comes a year after the implementation of the stimulus package (December 4, 2008). The Elysee defends the effectiveness with the publication of an encrypted file of 27 pages. Recovery remains News: the euro European finance officials reiterated Sunday that it was too early to stop stimulus.
In France, the maximum of effort was concentrated on 2009: already, "27 billion euros, or more than three quarters amounts announced in December 2008 and February 2009 in the 2009-2010 period, were injected in the economy", said Patrick Devedjian, Minister in charge of the recovery, at the last Council of Ministers. "This very targeted action has helped us through the crisis in less violent ways that countries such as the Germany or the Italy," note Natacha Valla, Economist Europe of Goldman Sachs. It has also helped to get out of the recession more quickly than expected: "stimulus contributed successively to 50 and 80 of the growth of 0.3 of GDP recorded in the second and then in the third quarter, estimated Mathilde Lemoine, Director of economic studies of HSBC France. This is explained by the differential case and household gross disposable income support measures, but also by the effects of the plans of our foreign partners.
Under the plan, EUR 13.3 billion was reimbursed to companies by fiscal measures: credit tax research, advance VAT, etc. "These cash support have helped many SME to the Cape of the recession, recognizes Karine Berger, Director of economic studies of Euler Hermes." Business failures have also increased twice slower in France to the international.
Latest drops of fuel
Concerning employment, Patrick Devedjian was estimated in early November that 400,000 jobs would be saved or created over two years. But this is figure debate. Example: 650.000 hires without charges have been made in very small businesses, but essentially is the effect of boon. One thing is certain: the action facilitated part-time unemployed was successful. In the second quarter, 320.000 employees benefited, ten times more that two years ago. Massive stimulus of assisted contracts (404.000 signed since January 1) and aid to learning have also depreciated the crisis.
If economists estimate that the plan responded well to the emergency, many worry how will be the output. Even if some measures will be extended, "the consideration of a temporary and focused plan in 2009 is that we are going to have a scissors effect strong enough, continued Natacha Valla." "We get to the last drops of fuel and the positive effects on growth will fade in the next six months." For example, the "prime case-sensitive" effect will fall. In the same vein, Karine Berger feared "that there is case insensitive in SMEs at the point where they will meet with a sales stable, an increase in the cost of raw materials and without public support." Moreover, public investment policy will support the construction industry this year, but "will have a recessive effect later because the plan has accelerated the implementation of projects but have not created new", adds Mathilde Lemoine. "In the end, the recovery plan should not produce ripple effects on private investment and consumption of households in 2010", says the Economist for HSBC. The Government replies to that tax reform will take over, and the future of the large loan investments.
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