Needed to both claim victory No the caution

The crisis affecting the financing of international trade is completed. This is the message key issued yesterday in Paris, at the annual 14ecolloque on risk countries of Coface, the subsidiary of Natixis in the export credit insurance. "We are at the end of the fifth great global crisis of credit since 1970," confirms Jérôme Cazes, its Director General. The peak of the crisis was reached in June 2009. If the unpaid had registered an increase of 19 in the first half, they declined by 40 in the last six months of 2009. Immediate result of the improvement observed: Coface proceeded to the rehabilitation of a screen of the "country risk" rating of 22 countries (read below). The global recovery in most countries, with few exceptions, explains the rally as the decline in corporate defaults. Needed to both claim victory No, the caution.

At the opening of the Conference, the Director General of the world Organization of the trade (WTO), Pascal Lamy, did not - voluntarily - forecasts of growth in world trade after a "black year" where trade declined by 30 in value (20 in volume). "Our forecasts are sensitive to economic forecasts, even if we probably touched the bottom." And to add that the resumption of world trade will benefit not to the countries in the same way. "We will see a decoupling of the recovery", he said, noting that emerging countries are probably better off.

Protectionist temptations

Rejecting the hypothesis of the "déglobalisation", Pascal Lamy, again warned the country against any protectionist attempt. Observing behaviour in line with the rules of the WTO, with the exception of the Russia, far Pascal Lamy does not illusions: the persistence of a high unemployment in the industrialized countries will lead to the persistence of protectionist temptations for several months yet. Hence his appeal classic to the conclusion, by the end of the year, Doha round.

COFACE is no more eupho America. The crisis is over, of course, but many uncertainties remain. "The resumption of 2010 is high risk in industrialized countries", thus considers Jérôme Cazes. If the credit bubble and real estate broke and are about to be resolved, others threaten. "The bubble on the stock markets reconstitutes itself." "The increase in the prices of the assets is too fast to economic recovery," says Jérôme Cazes.

Growth scenarios

Another concern, the swell of public debt, particularly in European countries. A crisis of confidence can occur. A problem with the Greece may reflect on all of the countries of the Union. Coface according to the "accidents" on sovereign debt, its experts questioned the nature of the next growth cycle. The scenario in the form of "L considered" takes precedence over the scenario in the "W" of a second relapse of the economy. "But it is true that we have more in addition to crises, close and brutal, if politicians do not react," advance Jérôme Cazes.

The real economy has paid a heavy tribute to the financial economy, according to him. To launch a financial product, why not draw methods in force in the market of pharmaceutical products, where tests of validity and dangerousness are needed before the placing on the market, it queries. Whatever the State of financial supervision in the future, it remains not just one of the lessons of this crisis that inter-company credit continued to operate.

Pascal Lamy, he welcomed the mobilization of multilateral institutions and regional development banks in their effort to maintain the financing of trade flows. With the G20 in London, not less than 250 billion dollars, mobilized for this purpose, helped to loosen the constraints, particularly in Asia.