The principal is the heavy unpopularity of the Government

It is with a solid winner morale that PS has launched its campaign for regional elections. Persistent raising the bar at the top, Martine Aubry hope "a map of the areas all pink" at the outcome of the vote. It is always perilous seem too sure of itself on the edge of a battle, and François Fillon probably right to advise the first Secretary of the PS to be "wary of scenarios written in advance". The Socialists are not less really convinced they can prevail in all metropolitan areas. Although excessive, their euphoria feed a series of objective reasons.

The principal is the heavy unpopularity of the Government. It is also strongly rejected as it was six years at the same time. It recalls that the 2004 election was led by a success of the left in 20 of the 22 regions of metropolitan France. The difference is that opinion today punishes more severely than the President of the Republic (31 of "confidence" against 65 of opinions to the contrary, according to the latest TNS Sofres barometer) while she is taking particularly to the Prime Minister at the time (33 of "confidence" against 64 from the same Institute). A logical result. Nicolas Sarkozy is currently regarded as the real head of the conduct of the Affairs of the country while Jean-Pierre Raffarin was seen in 2004, as a true Government.

In this month of February, the head of State at its level of record unpopularity. According to TNS Sofres (1), no President of the Republic since 1981 had been defeated so two and a half years after his election or re-election. The result is all the more spectacular this measure comes four days after a television performance of the President at strong hearing. Empathy then manifested by Sarkozy to the victims of the crisis was not to forget that the candidate of the "break" of 2007 had seated its success on a promise of action and results.

Presidential responsiveness to the crisis was that time impressed the French. In the last period, they were rather struck by a series of events which have further deepened the rift between "people" and "elite": the defence of the "bad life" by Frédéric Mitterrand, the attempt on the accession of Jean Sarkozy at the head of the Epad and high remuneration of Henri Proglio. In this context, the debate on "national identity" had even less likely to bring the popular electorate in the fold of the majority that the social and economic concerns dominate. Now, three quarters of workers and employees refuse their confidence to the President of the Republic.

The prospect of several "triangular" with a presence of the FN in the second round is a second reason for optimism for the PS. Several studies show a surge of the extreme right, taking advantage of a postponement of the sarkozysme disappointed, in the regions most affected by the crisis. The left could benefit, as this was the case six years ago, of such a configuration. In Champagne-Ardenne, for example, the PS would more easily prevail in the second round with the UMP and the FN

Third reason to hope for the PS: resizing expected influence ecologist. The series of opinion polls shows that the gap is widening for the dominant party of the left. In Ile-de-France, especially, the chances of Cécile Duflot prevail on Jean-Paul Huchon is are significantly narrowed. Ecologists pay no doubt a form of arrogance and insufficient preparation for the highest responsibilities. Yet they appear to be getting ahead of the Socialists in Alsace, where the left would have a serious chance for triangular with FN (2).

Socialist leaders have finally personal bonus which attaches to some of their outgoing President to win. That explains their concern for the Centre region, where the successor of Michel FIR, who has resigned from the Presidency in 2007 to keep her City Hall of Argenton, enjoys a low reputation with Hervé Novelli. An Ifop survey suggests that right here has real chances of success (3). This single case, not to mention the imbroglio of the Languedoc-Roussillon, should encourage the PS did not believe too quickly to the realism of a "grand slam".