We are no longer in free fall. "Joaquin Almunia, European Commissioner in charge of economic and Monetary Affairs, is intended more optimistic that the IMF and the OECD yesterday with Brussels economic forecasts for spring of the community Executive. "Forecasts are not pink." But for the first time since mid-2007, positive signals have emerged in recent weeks, which tend to show that the economy would stabilize in the second half before a gradual recovery in 2010. 
Rally in the financial sector, first, with 300 billions of euros invested by 19 Member States for recapitalizing banks and 3,000 billion made in guarantees. Stabilization in financial markets, including market shares even if the situation remains precarious. Improvement of the expectations of companies, whose "financing conditions appear to be improving." Not to mention the release of some encouraging indicators, exports to Asia, for example. All indices are say to the Commissioner that "the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 were the worst." Europe is not to much from case: "the situation is expected to begin to stabilize in Europe in the wake of the US", said Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the Eurogroup, refuting the idea that the trough of the wave has already been reached.
All States affected
The Commission table now on a 4 growth this year, and 0.1 next year, in the euro area, as for the whole of the Union. It is a little better than anticipate the international monetary Fund (4.1 and 0.4) and the OECD (4.1 and 0.3). But it is significantly less than previous forecasts of the European Executive, who still hoped in January a contraction of the GDP limited to 1.9 for 2009 and a resumption of 0.4 for 2010. The file should be examined by the Finance Ministers of the eurozone as soon as yesterday evening, before the great paymaster of twenty-seven is to capture today. The crisis affects all Member States. "While 7 countries on 27 were in recession last year, only Cyprus is beyond this year," said Joaquin Almunia. Unemployment should continue to widen, passing in the euro area of 7.5 in 2008 to 9.9 in 2009 and 11.5 in 2010. What should make matters worse for public deficits, expected to deteriorate, to 5.5 of GDP in the euro area in 2009 and even at 6.5 in 2010, compared to 1.9 in 2008 (total, 5 points of GDP have been engulfed in 2009 and 2010 European budgetary effort).
Outbreak of deficits
The 16 countries of the euro area, only the Finland, Cyprus and the Luxembourg should not exceed the limit of in principle authorized deficit (3 of GDP) next year. After the France, the Greece, the Spain and the Ireland in March, Brussels will soon open a procedure for excessive deficit against the Poland, Romania, Malta, the Latvia and the Lithuania. The France should see his to 6.6 in 2009 and 7 in 2010, compared to 3.4 in 2008. Only inflation should continue to be reduced to the second and third quarters. "There are no serious risk of deflation in the euro area or in the European Union", said Joaquin Almunia.
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