Transactions fell by 60 from the 2007 peak

It figures that you would like to forget. More than 4 million square metres of offices are empty in the Ile-de-France, reminiscent of bad memories. The demolition of obsolete office buildings or their transfer in housing again found some ECHO as a too abundant stock flow solution. Transactions fell by 60 from the 2007 peak. The rent reduced on average by 10 from 2008, promise back prior several quarters. And, again, their calculated decline in prices is underestimated, because statistics conveniently forget to consider franchises and the renegotiation of leases claimed and obtained by the tenants in the course of the past months.

However, professionals doped by end of 2009 exceptional transactions impatiently, convinced of an imminent recovery. Great triggering did not occur: little buildings would be fallen back in the hands of their creditors as in previous crisis. "Everyone facing these"crashes", but the bankers prefer to renegotiate their debt rather than retrieve meters square that they cannot manage, says Benoît du Passage, President of Jones Lang LaSalle France." We have helped them well, but they were not consulted. "Or not:"whether bankers or that of investors, money had dissipated, and will require well him record a day in the balance sheets, which is not yet done, says Olivier Piani, Director of real estate of the Allianz Group" However these losses are unlikely to jeopardize the major institutions that support. "Fortis and"recovered"the Tower of la Villette, a little more than 40.000 m2 Aubervilliers, from the failed Spanish owner, Renta Corporacion.

Cautious optimism

The creditors of the Colonial Fund, paid in shares of the company land Lyonnaise, are indirectly building owners, not all of first choice. "Banks will sell their debts or their assets down to opportunistic investors or will seek structures to manage them or value, in both cases, the profitability to suffer", think Philippe Couturier, CEO of Constructa Asset Management, obviously on the ranks to play fire. The time is therefore optimistic prudent redolent hypnotizes. "The marketers have an interest in putting forward a few references of transactions signed, to shake the market, j. analyst. While the companies have not finished to be affected by the crisis and rising unemployment mechanically translates a request lower square metres of offices.

The more confident derive their serenity of a real increase in activity on a small segment of the market. Well placed buildings, rented for a long time stable users, again sharpen appetites and their prices back. A piece of Capital 8, a set of offices belonging to Unibail located in the 8earrondissement in Paris, would be to sell for more 250 million euros and would have been 9 offers. Colombes, in the Ile-de-France, building Europe Avenue owned by Beacon Capital partners could also be assigned. Nice Cap 3000 shopping centre also awakened several investors able to align some 450 million euros, two other centers, in Limoges and Troyes, are on the market for around 100 million euros. "Institutional as insurance companies and the German open funds need to place their collection, and today, the estate presents profitability net of 4, much better than the stock market or money market", said Stéphane Theuriau, Director General of Altarea-Cogedim. In the euro area, the Parisian market remains the most attractive and safe. "Rents declined, which means that they will rise", continues Olivier Piani, which wants to increase its real estate risk and to increase from 17 to 25 billion euros the built heritage of Allianz in Europe. "The difficulty is that everyone is looking the same, making prices", said Joelle Chauvin, real estate Director of Aviva. The target is small and interested investors less dependent of the banks.

Only the nine fills

The rest of the market, 90 or more, Hibernate yet. "Nothing two years builds, we are ready to launch projects, even in white, but the banks do not yet support us," said Eric Sasson, Director General of the Carlyle for Europe Group. Even without recovery, recently delivered buildings fill at the expense of the old premises and new surfaces may be missed, resulting in a bidding on rare deliveries expected by 2011. The Outlook for 2010 are not encouraging: rental transactions should not exceed 1.73 million square meters, a figure lower than that of 2009, according to a panel of actors interviewed by IPD France. Investment extrapolated from the movements of the first quarter may be approaching the 11 billion euros, against 7.6 in 2009 (non-residential) and 27 two billion years ago.